Sunday Night Journal — June 20, 2010
I caught only the last few words of Mr. Obama’s Tuesday
night speech on the Gulf Coast oil spill, and have just now tracked
down the text and read it (you can find it
here).
As you may have heard, the speech was not especially well
received, even by his admirers. Here are two examples snagged in
about 90 seconds of searching: Robert Reich calls it “
vapid,”
and Kevin Drum (in Mother Jones,
no less) says “This speech felt entirely by-the-numbers to me....It felt like he was reading off a PowerPoint deck.”
I have been very, very tempted to
blast Obama’s handling of the spill, but have resisted the
temptation. In fact I don’t think Obama has done such a
terrible job, though I think it could have been better, and in any
event the initial response was really not his direct responsibility.
I will say that he didn’t seem to treat it with the needed
level of urgency and decision until it had already been under way for
some weeks.
The big temptation for me comes
from resentment of the difference between the way the media at large
treated Bush’s handling of Hurricane Katrina and Obama’s
handling of the oil spill. Within a few days of Katrina, most of the
media had reached a consensus that Bush’s responsibility for
the disaster stopped only at the question of whether he had
personally created and directed the storm, and even this sometimes
seemed to be an open question. Years later, Katrina is still
mentioned in the same breath as the Iraq War as a massive failure of
the Bush administration. This is vastly, vastly unfair. And however
disappointed Obama’s supporters in the media (which includes
almost everyone apart from Fox News and talk radio) may have been
with his response to the BP spill, they will never hang it around his
neck as a permanent badge of shame as they did with Bush and Katrina.
But that’s business as
usual. Hardly a day goes by, and never a week, that there
isn’t something in the news that makes me think If a
Republican said or did that....
And I try not to let myself fall into the reactionary cycle that
seems to drive most political commentary.
So back to the speech: there are
a lot of relatively small things to pick at—for instance, the
assertion that an energy bill passed by the House last fall “finally
makes clean energy the profitable kind of energy for America's
businesses.” Really? How, exactly, can mere legislation make
something profitable, except by some manipulative combination of
subsidies and taxes which might or might not bear any relationship to
its real costs and benefits?
Most
striking, though, is the enormous fallacy which appears as the climax
of the speech, the summit of its ambition to solve the problem in
both its immediate and long-term aspects. It’s what I think of
as the man-on-the-moon fallacy (and I’m far from the only one
to remark on it): it usually takes the form of “If we can put a
man on the moon, we can [insert whatever problem the speaker is
interested in].”
Well,
maybe we can, and maybe we can’t. It all depends on the nature
of the problem to be solved. I first heard this fallacy pointed out
many years ago by my father (who, as it happens, was involved in the
space program for a while in the 1960s). It was during the first
energy crisis, or perhaps I should say the first recognition of the
ongoing energy crisis, in the mid-1970s. He and one of my uncles were
discussing the oil shortage, and my uncle wanted to know why the
government couldn’t just call together the nation’s most
gifted scientists and engineers and solve
the problem—develop
some kind of new energy source. “If we can put a man on the
moon...” he said.
But
no, my father explained. It doesn’t work that way. The problem
of putting a man on the moon and the problem of finding a new source
of cheap energy are not the same sort of problem. In the first case
all the physical principles were well known, and at the time
President Kennedy made the commitment to accomplish it by the
end of the 1960s a fair amount of the engineering work had been done,
enough to verify that the basic ideas were workable. It is no
disparagement of the eventual achievement to say that the project
involved no scientific breakthrough, but rather the heroic
development of known ideas. Whereas—my father continued—a
solution to the energy problem requires an engineering or scientific
breakthrough: either a radically new approach to some known process or material
that would get vastly more energy out of it,
or, even further afield, a theoretical breakthrough, the discovery of
an entirely new method of generating energy safely, reliably, and at
reasonable cost. And—this was his last point—you can’t
produce a breakthrough on demand. You can put a lot of people to work
looking for one, but you can’t guarantee that they’ll
find anything.
Ever
since then, I’ve seen the question of “alternative”
energy in the light of that conversation. Around the time of that
exchange, we began to hear the appeals and promises for alternative
energy sources that we’ve heard steadily ever since, and that
Mr. Obama repeats in his address, exhorting us to a more zealous
commitment to their development, ending with not just the
man-on-the-moon fallacy but two of its frequent companions: the
Manhattan Project and the industrial output of the United States
during World War II. The Manhattan Project was (I think) more
doubtful than the moon project, in that its theoretical principles
were less settled and there could be no incremental experimentation
comparable to what could be done with small unmanned rockets in
relation to space flight—no little bombs. Still, the scientists
were pretty sure about where they were trying to go, and it was
essentially a matter of engineering to get there.
And
the comparison to World War II industrialism is almost completely
irrelevant. We knew how to build airplanes and ships, we only needed
to assemble the resources required to build lots more of them. But
the problem with, for instance, wind power is not that the supply of
turbines is inadequate, but that the amount of electricity they can
produce is so small that we would have to cover vast reaches of land
with them to make a serious dent in our consumption of oil and coal.
The problem with solar power (well, one of the problems) is that the
materials which can convert solar power to electricity are expensive
and inefficient. The problem with electric cars is that since most of
our electricity comes from coal they are in essence coal-powered
cars.
And
so on. I’m not an expert in this field by any means, but as far
as I can tell the situation with regard to alternative energy has not
changed dramatically since that conversation between my father and my
uncle thirty-five years ago. Even if wind, solar, etc., were widely
implemented they would bring their own forms of pollution and other
environmental damage with them.
Mr.
Obama has not given us the difficult truth, any more than his
predecessors have. There is no green-energy fairy who is going to
wave a wand and give us all the environmentally-friendly inexpensive
energy we want. Nuclear power, which the president did not mention,
may—may—come
nearest, and although as it’s been implemented in this country
it’s been very safe, it carries the risk of doing far more
damage with one failure than most other forms of energy production
(though I have to say I’m not sure a nuclear plant could do
more widespread damage than this oil spill).
There’s
no free lunch. There’s no silver bullet. There’s no Santa
Claus. Choose your aphorism: the fact is that, absent some
breakthrough which can’t be commanded or even foreseen, we
can’t “solve” the energy problem in any way that
does not leave us with some combination of danger, pollution, and
expense in which the levels of at least one of those factors is
greater than we as a nation are currently willing to accept. I don’t
know whether Mr. Obama realizes this or not. But if he does, and
chose not to say it (perhaps for fear of seeming like another Jimmy
Carter), he may have done his immediate interests as well as the
nation’s future a disservice. It’s just possible that
such honesty would have been better received by both his supporters
and his detractors. It’s just possible that the American public
is ready to hear some realistic discussion of realistic limits.
But
then I’m not sure I would bet on that, and maybe Obama didn’t
want to, either.
More specifics on the
obstacles in the way of massively reducing of our oil and coal consumption
by Robert J. Samuelson here.